One of the most dangerous earthquake areas on earth is the Island of Honshu, Japan. Here the Pacific, North American, Eurasian and Philippine Plates converge to generate major earthquakes with an average recurrence interval of about 100 to 150 years. These major earthquakes are known as the “Tokai Earthquakes”. The four most recent Tokai Earthquakes occurred in 1854, 1707, 1605 and 1498. All of these are estimated to have been 8+ magnitude earthquakes. A repeat of one of these events will cause thousands of deaths and hundreds of billions of dollars in damages.

The Japanese government is taking the Tokai Earthquakes seriously and has charged the Japan Meteorological Agency with the job of predicting the next one. They have a dense array of instruments placed to accumulate a continuous stream of data related to seismicity, strain, crustal expansion, tilt, tidal variations, ground water fluctuations and other variables. They are watching for an anomaly in this data which might precede the next major Tokai Earthquake.

A long-feared massive earthquake hitting the Tokai region in central Japan could result in the deaths of 8,100 people, destruction of 230,000 houses and buildings. The long-feared central Honshu earthquake, possibly with a magnitude of 8, is anticipated to strike the region southwest of Tokyo when the Philippine Sea plate buckles due to a pressure buildup caused by the Eurasian plate slipping beneath it.


The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting.

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